This post is going to be a bit of a precursor to a guide I'd like to put together on training (although there are quite a few around already), because I think knowing how form works is a big step in being able to maximise form for your players.
When form updates happen
Form updates happen at the following times:
- At the change report, with a normal form update and an update based on skill increase / decrease;
- At match times, with a normal form update immediately before the match, in-game form updates and result-based form updates;
- After training takes place; and
- After "everyday events" appear in the mailbox.
Form notations and average form
Form notations are points where the form is recorded to calculate their average. Notations are taken after the change report (or when a player joins a club), and after each competitive game, whether the player is involved or not. At the start of the season, when a player has very few notations, average form can fluctuate wildly. However, as the season elapses and a player picks up more notations, average form will stabilise.
Normal form updates
A normal form update is a change in form that is influenced by the player's hidden form tendency, a value which is either positive or negative, indicating whether the player's form is on the rise or whether it is dipping. The size of a normal form update is influenced by the form a player has - form increases will be larger and decreases smaller when a player is on low form, and vice versa when a player is on high form. Because the aim is to maintain form at as high a level as possible, the drops in form can often seem disproportionately large compared to form gains.
Once the form has been updated, the player's hidden form tendency is then updated, based on the player's form. It can change (either from positive to negative or the other way around) or stay the same.
Hidden form tendency and rubberbanding
The hidden form tendency is the primary factor that makes maintaining form difficult. It is not to be confused with form trend, which is an indicator of a player's past form change (as shown by the red / black / green arrows on the squad page).
As Iwe puts it:
"The hidden form tendency can change at every normal form update but it always more likely to remain in the same direction. A hidden form tendency can also be changed due to some extraordinary situation in a match for example a great individual performance or a really lousy indivdual mistake."
The hidden form tendency is more likely to become (or stay) positive on lower form, and is more likely to become or stay negative on higher form. This effect is dubbed "rubberbanding" because a player's form will generally fluctuate around a middle value (usually around 10, but slightly higher for younger players, and slightly lower for older ones), and the further away the player's form gets (like stretching a rubber band), the more the system will try to "pull" form back towards that value.
The only direct influence a manager can have on a negative hidden form tendency is form training. There are ways to help determine whether a player's hidden form tendency is more likely to be positive or negative, and I intend to detail those in another post.
Match-related form updates
There are a number of ways in which a match can affect a player's form or form tendency, depending on what happens during the match and the overall outcome.
First of all, any player not involved in the match will lose a small amount of form. This is usually less than a bar, but it is a noticeable decrease on players that have high from.
For players that do play, the most common in-game events that affect form are chances, and so these events tend to affect individuals. Every miss affects a striker's form, for example, and some misses can be so bad that they can turn a player's hidden form tendency to negative. Conversely, goals improve form, while saving / not saving shots has an effect on 'keepers. Injuries also have a signficant effect on form (and, from my experience, hidden form tendency as well) although this has been scaled back fairly recently.
At the end of the match, players' individual performances can affect form, but sections of a team are evaluated as well. Each team part has a specific task - defenders prevent chances, midfielders create chances and strikers convert them. If these tasks are completed, then they will be rated well and this can reflect on form. Likewise, the actual result itself has a bearing on the team's form. Defeats reduce form (particularly if they are against weaker teams) and victories increase form (moreso against stronger teams).
Training and its effects
Contrary to what some believe, the main benefit of training is not necessarily the direct effect on a player's form, but the effect on their hidden form tendency. Correcting a negative hidden form tendency will cause the player's form to rise at the player's next match. Indeed, because the increase in form is based on form that the player "doesn't have" (i.e. a percentage of 20 - form), form increases are generally no more than one or two bars most of the time, with the bigger increases happening for players on low form (for example, following a change report).
The likelihood of training correcting a hidden form tendency improves the lower the player's form. This quote from Iwe details more:
"I might add that the chance of the player having a positive hidden form tendency is never lower than 65%. And for a player with no form it is a guarantee that the player will have a positive hidden form tendency after a form training."
