20/02/2014

Using the Xpert Ladies to get a (nearly) free extra team

The Xpert Ladies is an unusual league; it's not really an official league, but it's not really a private league either. There is one thing that is quite handy about it though - even though it counts against quota for you to join a league, it doesn't count against quota once you're in. I actually asked the crew about this and they say it's fine.

This means that, as long as you don't have a tendency to hop private leagues on a regular basis, you can actually run three normal private leagues and a Ladies team for the cost of a one-off extra team payment to join the Ladies. There is one caveat, though - if you wish to leave a team, you'll need an extra team again in order to join another league.

I believe the quota count extends as well, so (assuming you have full quota, either via Xpert rating or VIP) you should be able to have five private teams (including the Ladies) by paying for just one extra, and six private teams (including the Ladies) by paying for just two extra.


13/02/2014

The mechanics of form

This post is going to be a bit of a precursor to a guide I'd like to put together on training (although there are quite a few around already), because I think knowing how form works is a big step in being able to maximise form for your players.

When form updates happen

Form updates happen at the following times:
  • At the change report, with a normal form update and an update based on skill increase / decrease;
  • At match times, with a normal form update immediately before the match, in-game form updates and result-based form updates;
  • After training takes place; and
  • After "everyday events" appear in the mailbox.

Form notations and average form

Form notations are points where the form is recorded to calculate their average. Notations are taken after the change report (or when a player joins a club), and after each competitive game, whether the player is involved or not. At the start of the season, when a player has very few notations, average form can fluctuate wildly. However, as the season elapses and a player picks up more notations, average form will stabilise.

Normal form updates

A normal form update is a change in form that is influenced by the player's hidden form tendency, a value which is either positive or negative, indicating whether the player's form is on the rise or whether it is dipping. The size of a normal form update is influenced by the form a player has - form increases will be larger and decreases smaller when a player is on low form, and vice versa when a player is on high form. Because the aim is to maintain form at as high a level as possible, the drops in form can often seem disproportionately large compared to form gains.

Once the form has been updated, the player's hidden form tendency is then updated, based on the player's form. It can change (either from positive to negative or the other way around) or stay the same.

Hidden form tendency and rubberbanding

The hidden form tendency is the primary factor that makes maintaining form difficult. It is not to be confused with form trend, which is an indicator of a player's past form change (as shown by the red / black / green arrows on the squad page).

As Iwe puts it:

"The hidden form tendency can change at every normal form update but it always more likely to remain in the same direction. A hidden form tendency can also be changed due to some extraordinary situation in a match for example a great individual performance or a really lousy indivdual mistake."

The hidden form tendency is more likely to become (or stay) positive on lower form, and is more likely to become or stay negative on higher form. This effect is dubbed "rubberbanding" because a player's form will generally fluctuate around a middle value (usually around 10, but slightly higher for younger players, and slightly lower for older ones), and the further away the player's form gets (like stretching a rubber band), the more the system will try to "pull" form back towards that value.

The only direct influence a manager can have on a negative hidden form tendency is form training. There are ways to help determine whether a player's hidden form tendency is more likely to be positive or negative, and I intend to detail those in another post.

Match-related form updates

There are a number of ways in which a match can affect a player's form or form tendency, depending on what happens during the match and the overall outcome.

First of all, any player not involved in the match will lose a small amount of form. This is usually less than a bar, but it is a noticeable decrease on players that have high from.

For players that do play, the most common in-game events that affect form are chances, and so these events tend to affect individuals. Every miss affects a striker's form, for example, and some misses can be so bad that they can turn a player's hidden form tendency to negative. Conversely, goals improve form, while saving / not saving shots has an effect on 'keepers. Injuries also have a signficant effect on form (and, from my experience, hidden form tendency as well) although this has been scaled back fairly recently.

At the end of the match, players' individual performances can affect form, but sections of a team are evaluated as well. Each team part has a specific task - defenders prevent chances, midfielders create chances and strikers convert them. If these tasks are completed, then they will be rated well and this can reflect on form. Likewise, the actual result itself has a bearing on the team's form. Defeats reduce form (particularly if they are against weaker teams) and victories increase form (moreso against stronger teams).

Training and its effects

Contrary to what some believe, the main benefit of training is not necessarily the direct effect on a player's form, but the effect on their hidden form tendency. Correcting a negative hidden form tendency will cause the player's form to rise at the player's next match. Indeed, because the increase in form is based on form that the player "doesn't have" (i.e. a percentage of 20 - form), form increases are generally no more than one or two bars most of the time, with the bigger increases happening for players on low form (for example, following a change report).

The likelihood of training correcting a hidden form tendency improves the lower the player's form. This quote from Iwe details more:

"I might add that the chance of the player having a positive hidden form tendency is never lower than 65%. And for a player with no form it is a guarantee that the player will have a positive hidden form tendency after a form training."


03/02/2014

Transfers, skill updates and the "mini-CR"

One of the features of Xpert Eleven that I don't think is described in enough detail is the transfer market and how it works. There's a lot goes on when you sell a player (and when you buy a player as well) which isn't explained much anywhere, but it's very important when deciding when to buy, when to sell and what to look for in a player, particularly in the official leagues. I'm hoping that I can shed some light on transfers and what is commonly referred to as the "mini-CR".

What happens when a player is sold

When a player is put on the transfer market, the system does some behind the scenes processing to update the player's skill when they switch clubs. This update is what causes players to have different skill when they are evaluated. Note that the skill shown before evaluating is the player's skill at the selling team, and the evaluated skill is that after the update.

To calculate the skill update, the system estimates what the player's development value would be at the end of the season if average form stayed the same, and the player continued to get the same amount of game time as they do now. This development value is then converted into a skill increase / decrease (as you would get at the end of the season), but is then scaled down to the percentage of the season that has elapsed while the player has been at the club i.e. if 30% of the season has elapsed for a player that was with the team form the beginning of the season, the skill change will be 30% of what it would be come season's end. This is why the skill change is referred to as a "mini-CR", since it's governed by the same rules as the change report, but is always a smaller update.

What happens when you sign a player

When you sign a player (from the transfer market), they undergo a process called "cashing out". Depending on how far you are through the season, the player will have their skill change at the end of the season capped. If you are 40% of the way through your season, then 40% of the player's skill update will be "cashed out" and your player will only be eligible for 60% of a full skill update at the end of the season. This is immediately reflected in the player's Development Value - it will start on a higher value than usual (because players would lose less skill at the end of the season), but it will increase more slowly. You may also find that, if you sign a player particularly late in the season and their AF is high, you may never get DV as high as average form, no matter how many games the player gets.

What this means for buying players

There are a few things that you should remember when buying players (particularly in the official leagues, where you can view most players at their current club by clicking on their name):

  • You should buy young players for developing as early in the season (ideally before the league kicks off) as possible to reduce cashing out;
  • Players are more likely to have skill increases if they have had plenty of game time, and will almost certainly lose some skill (even if not visibly) if they have no game time. Don't just check the number of games played, look to see how many minutes they've played;
  • It's worth checking that a manager looks like they maintain the form of the players they are selling;
  • Players are more likely to have bigger skill increases (or decreases if they have no game time) if their league is further through their season.
  • It may be worth checking the player's history, such as their skill and age when they joined the team. If a young player looks like they've had a change report and not gained a visible bar, it could be that they are high in their skill band i.e. they gained some skill over the CR, but not enough to show up. Likewise, if they have had a CR and gained two bars, then they are likely to be low in their skill band and probably not worth the investment.