The science of underevals

"Underevals", or players that gain skill bar on transfer, are starting to become a more popular method of farming players, particularly with the new threads in the forums created for the purpose of advertising players. In a previous post, I discussed what happens when a transfer takes place, but I'll build on that by discussing how you can use that to your advantage when selling players.

The basic premise

Players gain or lose skill on transfer, based on their average form, match experience and the amount the season has progressed. The way the skill increase / decrease is calculated is very similar to the way that it is at the change report, although there is one difference; at the change report, players get a random amount of between 0 and 0.2 as an additional gain (or loss) at the CR, but this is not applied on transfers.

Setting players up to become underevals

Building players up in order to sell them as underevals is a similar approach to training players normally - maintain form and ensure you give enough game time. The higher the form and the greater the match experience, the bigger the skill increase. Selling later in the season will also increase the skill gain a player makes. It's worth noting, however, that you don't necessarily need to get a huge skill increase - just enough so that the player gains a skill bar. You may find that, if you have a player that is high in their skill band, it's easier to try and sell them as an undereval than trying to attain a double jump with them, especially if you have lots of other players that need match experience.

When exactly to sell

There are a couple of things to consider when trying to sell underevals - whether you've earned enough of a skill increase for a visible jump on transfer, and whether there are teams actively looking for players. While selling four days before the deadline will give the maximum increase, you won't want to sell then if there aren't many leagues in silly season (which you can spot in the official leagues, but is mainly down to luck in private ones), and there's not much point keeping a player for extra weeks if you've already done enough for them to gain skill.

Calculating the DV a player needs to be an undereval

This calculator should help you work out what DV you will need to make a player an undereval given a point in the season. Note that I have written the calculator to be slightly pessimistic, in that they should return a DV that will guarantee an undereval, but you use it at your own risk.

Age:	16-20 21-22 23-25 26-28 29-31 32-35
Skill:
Average Form:
Amount of season that has passed (on day of listing):	of days / games

Transfers, skill updates and the "mini-CR"

One of the features of Xpert Eleven that I don't think is described in enough detail is the transfer market and how it works. There's a lot goes on when you sell a player (and when you buy a player as well) which isn't explained much anywhere, but it's very important when deciding when to buy, when to sell and what to look for in a player, particularly in the official leagues. I'm hoping that I can shed some light on transfers and what is commonly referred to as the "mini-CR".

What happens when a player is sold

When a player is put on the transfer market, the system does some behind the scenes processing to update the player's skill when they switch clubs. This update is what causes players to have different skill when they are evaluated. Note that the skill shown before evaluating is the player's skill at the selling team, and the evaluated skill is that after the update.

To calculate the skill update, the system estimates what the player's development value would be at the end of the season if average form stayed the same, and the player continued to get the same amount of game time as they do now. This development value is then converted into a skill increase / decrease (as you would get at the end of the season), but is then scaled down to the percentage of the season that has elapsed while the player has been at the club i.e. if 30% of the season has elapsed for a player that was with the team form the beginning of the season, the skill change will be 30% of what it would be come season's end. This is why the skill change is referred to as a "mini-CR", since it's governed by the same rules as the change report, but is always a smaller update.

What happens when you sign a player

When you sign a player (from the transfer market), they undergo a process called "cashing out". Depending on how far you are through the season, the player will have their skill change at the end of the season capped. If you are 40% of the way through your season, then 40% of the player's skill update will be "cashed out" and your player will only be eligible for 60% of a full skill update at the end of the season. This is immediately reflected in the player's Development Value - it will start on a higher value than usual (because players would lose less skill at the end of the season), but it will increase more slowly. You may also find that, if you sign a player particularly late in the season and their AF is high, you may never get DV as high as average form, no matter how many games the player gets.

What this means for buying players

There are a few things that you should remember when buying players (particularly in the official leagues, where you can view most players at their current club by clicking on their name):

• You should buy young players for developing as early in the season (ideally before the league kicks off) as possible to reduce cashing out;
• Players are more likely to have skill increases if they have had plenty of game time, and will almost certainly lose some skill (even if not visibly) if they have no game time. Don't just check the number of games played, look to see how many minutes they've played;
• It's worth checking that a manager looks like they maintain the form of the players they are selling;
• Players are more likely to have bigger skill increases (or decreases if they have no game time) if their league is further through their season.
• It may be worth checking the player's history, such as their skill and age when they joined the team. If a young player looks like they've had a change report and not gained a visible bar, it could be that they are high in their skill band i.e. they gained some skill over the CR, but not enough to show up. Likewise, if they have had a CR and gained two bars, then they are likely to be low in their skill band and probably not worth the investment.