Selling players as underevaluations

In the past, the most common way people have raised cash has been to bring in youths, get them to double jump (e.g. a 17/4 to an 18/6) and then sell them on. However, something that is becoming increasingly common is the deliberate sale of players that will increase skill on transfer. I've seen more adverts in the forums of late for players that are being listed as underevaluations, and it makes sense to sell players in this way as you can get the skill increase without an increase in age.

My first thoughts are this approach would work better in the official leagues - you can sell players quite late into a long season (thus maximising the skill increase a player will get), you can pick a target league to sell to and it's easier for managers to verify the players you are selling. However, I will be trying this approach in a private league, with the aim of training a player and then selling them as a double underevaluation.

My Red Army side has two young strikers that are both very high in their skill band - Makalov is on 6.4 skill and Anosov is on 5.4. Obtaining a double at the end of the season for both is a viable target, although I believe I can maximise their selling potential due to the nature of the league. The division has nine teams with one match a week, so it's 16 games over 18 weeks. There are also two cups so there's plenty of room to garner extra match experience, especially as I made the final of one and am confident that I can progress quite far in the other, two-legged affair. If I keep the two players' forms up, I believe I can get the players to their target DVs - Makalov would need to be on about 18 DV if I sell at the very last moment to gain 1.1 skill, while Anosov will need a high 18 / low 19 by my reckoning, as he needs the extra 0.1 skill due to even rounding.

It will be the first time I've purposely sold underevaluations and I think it will be useful to gain some experience of listing and attempting to advertise deliberate underevals as well as providing me data for the mini-CR.

The science of underevals

"Underevals", or players that gain skill bar on transfer, are starting to become a more popular method of farming players, particularly with the new threads in the forums created for the purpose of advertising players. In a previous post, I discussed what happens when a transfer takes place, but I'll build on that by discussing how you can use that to your advantage when selling players.

The basic premise

Players gain or lose skill on transfer, based on their average form, match experience and the amount the season has progressed. The way the skill increase / decrease is calculated is very similar to the way that it is at the change report, although there is one difference; at the change report, players get a random amount of between 0 and 0.2 as an additional gain (or loss) at the CR, but this is not applied on transfers.

Setting players up to become underevals

Building players up in order to sell them as underevals is a similar approach to training players normally - maintain form and ensure you give enough game time. The higher the form and the greater the match experience, the bigger the skill increase. Selling later in the season will also increase the skill gain a player makes. It's worth noting, however, that you don't necessarily need to get a huge skill increase - just enough so that the player gains a skill bar. You may find that, if you have a player that is high in their skill band, it's easier to try and sell them as an undereval than trying to attain a double jump with them, especially if you have lots of other players that need match experience.

When exactly to sell

There are a couple of things to consider when trying to sell underevals - whether you've earned enough of a skill increase for a visible jump on transfer, and whether there are teams actively looking for players. While selling four days before the deadline will give the maximum increase, you won't want to sell then if there aren't many leagues in silly season (which you can spot in the official leagues, but is mainly down to luck in private ones), and there's not much point keeping a player for extra weeks if you've already done enough for them to gain skill.

Calculating the DV a player needs to be an undereval

This calculator should help you work out what DV you will need to make a player an undereval given a point in the season. Note that I have written the calculator to be slightly pessimistic, in that they should return a DV that will guarantee an undereval, but you use it at your own risk.

Age:	16-20 21-22 23-25 26-28 29-31 32-35
Skill:
Average Form:
Amount of season that has passed (on day of listing):	of days / games

Growing your own vs. using the market

I'm a fan of the "conveyor" style of team building, i.e. having players spread over a range of ages, with younger players developing to replace older ones when they retire. Part of the process of the conveyor is bringing in younger players to train up, but there are times when it may be more beneficial to just skip the process and just buy a ready made player that meets your requirements.

Goalkeepers and free kick takers

These two players are often touted as the most important in any side - they are the players that can win you matches on their own. While you can develop these players by yourself, there is definitely an incentive to buy them from the off, notably with 'keepers. A young goalie can cost you results while they develop so you could skip that step and buy an older, better keeper one straight away, while you can have a young FK specialist training up, you'll want a decent one taking free kicks in the meantime. If you're looking to maintain a side at the very top (as the likes of Imperium Sine Fine have done remarkably well) then you may find that just buying goalkeepers at their peak will be the way forward.

Starting out

I tend to start new teams (although I effectively overhauled FC Ballbreakers) and, while I'm developing a smaller number of youngsters in the opening seasons, I will bring in older mentors to assist their development (and make sure I don't get drubbed too badly each week). It's unlikely with most new teams that the older players will be of the quality you require to maximise experience for the youths, so picking up a couple of cheap veterans will often be helpful.

Strengthening the first XI

Another time I'd look at buying in a player is if I was looking to bolster the starting lineup, primarily for a promotion / title push. One downside to the conveyor is that, while a selection of the players will be fully developed, some will not yet be at their peak, and having to field these will weaken your side. Bringing in quality players could be needed to really compete in the higher divisions.

Pros and cons

• If you're training your players from scratch, you're in control of their development and compatibility should be excellent by the time the player reaches their peak, but it will take time (especially in longer leagues), and there's a risk that one or two bad seasons development may scupper your plans.
• If you're buying players from the market, you don't have to worry about those seasons of developing a player where they're not much use to you, but you're at the mercy of the market. This means you can't guarantee a ready supply when you need it, or you might not find a good level of compatibility, or you may have to pay a premium for a player.

You may find that in leagues with long seasons, you're best using your younger players to generate cash and buying most of the players you want to compete on the market. In leagues with short seasons, you may find that developing players quickly can be the more cost effective approach.