Analysing your own (and others') results and improving your tactics

As somebody who spends a lot of time trawling (and not trolling) the Xpert forum, I've seen more than my fair share of tactical discussion over the eight years or so I've played the game to date. The thing with a lot of the debate that happens with tactics (as often seen on various "why did I lose?" threads from days gone by, where the OP is usually told they are unlucky, or have their tactics ripped to bits) is that a small amount of information comes from fact e.g. the rules, quotes from Iwe or the crew etc., while a larger amount comes from speculation (often comparing the game to real life) or anecdotal experience (based on a manager's own results, and not necessarily over the longer term). As I've come to that view, I've started commenting less directly on tactics as I prefer to advise people based on the facts, rather than a potentially distorted view from my own experience.

One downside to tactical discussion in the general forums (as opposed to select private leagues) is that the managers that know the best answers are likely to not post their comments - after all, why should they give away their tactical advantage to all and sundry? It does mean that a lot of what you read regarding tactics can be contradictory, out of date or just plain wrong.

So, if the forums aren't reliable, then the best way to learn is to look at results. Here, I'd like to talk about a few things to consider if you wish to analyse your matches (or indeed, the matches of other managers that you may respect or consider to have real tactical nous) in order to learn the most from them and maybe pick up one or two novel ideas.

One swallow does not a summer make

I've often seen managers cite a single match to 'prove' a theory they may have e.g. they will pick one match they have played recently using 4-2-4 to demonstrate that it is a solid formation. The outcome of a single match is not enough evidence to prove anything - you could look at a dozen more matches with the same formation / playing style etc. that you are looking at and they could all go the opposite way entirely. The more data you have at your disposal, the better your analysis will be.

Pick and choose your matches

Some matches will teach you a lot more than others, for a number of reasons. Since tactics reports cost 35k a pop, it makes sense to be a little reasoned with your approach. Here are my tips for picking and choosing matches to study:

• Pick big games. These could be because of the strength of the teams involved, or the quality of the coaches. XCL games (particularly in the knockouts) are often worth a look.
• Look for upsets. These could be games where a weaker side has overcome a much stronger opponent, or an away side has absolutely dominated against a similarly matched home team. Matches where a stronger side thrashes a weaker side are probably of little use.
• Check the match report first. There could be factors involved that you want to discount straight away e.g. an early red card, or one side forgetting to set a line-up (indicated by no subs) or some really poor tactics (usually less than three stars).

Consider all the evidence

A result may not be down to just one single factor - there may be some parts of the tactics that come into play that you might not normally consider. Formation and playing style in combination I consider to be the two most important, but you should try to inspect the line-ups as well to make sure there are no obvious weaknesses. After that, I would say that the playmaker is the next important factor, then the ref-based decisions (cheat / offsides / aggression). It may be worth watching The Game if you can, to see how a game pans out - the overall stats may tell one story, but watching the game you could notice an influential event in the game e.g. a substitution at a particular time that can have a large bearing.

This is probably going to be my last post for at least two weeks (but probably up to a month) as I'm heading to Brazil on Saturday for a fortnight to soak up some WC atmosphere, then I'm off to Spain after that.