Game updates

There has been a recent update from Saarde, one of the X11 crew about a number of updates that are planned for the game (as well as info about recent changes). The full list is here.

I'll be honest, I like the look of what is being planned. The presumption is that the tweaks to the game engine will revolve around possession and (hopefully) shifting the emphasis away from the midfield when it comes to creating chances (although that would affect my teams that are using all-round defenders and midfielders upfront for the moment).

The AI for teams will be helpful as well, IMO. The Xpert leagues have a lot of dead teams and giving the coaches in Division 7 a bit more of a challenge can only be a good thing.

I anticipate the quicker league format (i.e. three games a week with shorter training) will be popular among web users too. I'm in two minds as to whether I'd be joining a league like that - I don't have much time on weekends - but if the option becomes available for existing league admins to switch, I can see it being taken up.

Firefox plug-in

I've been thinking for a while about how to make things a little easier within the X11 site, and I thought I'd have a punt at a plug-in, which I've finally gotten around to releasing. Note that this has been signed with AMO (and subsequently renamed), so existing users wishing to update may find that existing data is not retained.

Essentially, it records team and player details and allows calculation of a player's exact skill without having to move to a separate site. It stores calculated values and then displays them when you hover over a player's skill (almost) anywhere else on the site. It also records evaluation details, and gives a more precise value for a player's compatibility (in degrees left or right of the centre of the dial, -90 (left) to 90 (right)).

To use it, download the file from the link and run it in Firefox. Once that is done, it will work in the background picking up data from pages you view. I've opted against fetching data directly as the crew might not like it and it's a bit naughty if people have slow connections or data limits.

You'll want to visit pages in this order:
The lobby (which you are directed to when you log in anyway).
The squad page for each team - this loads player data.
The players bought page - this loads players' starting skill.
After that, you can go to the change reports page and, when you select a player, their skill should be calculated and stored.

The plug-in will also fetch details on evaluations (although you have to leave the page open for at least 3-4 seconds before you navigate anywhere else - sorry about that) and it should update the list on the market main screen with the player's evaluated compatibility and their estimated value (if they have one).

Next up, I'm looking to add reminders about CR training, warnings if PRs haven't been issued and notifications if players you declare an interest in are close to their deadline. I'm open to suggestions though about what would make people's lives easier.

If I get what I want to done on the FF plug in, I may look into Chrome but I will only really consider looking at those two browsers.

A team with no forwards?

Back in October, I outlined my plan to develop my team in the League of D (Huge Pythons at the time, but since renamed Grim Fandango), which involved rotating 4-5-1 and 5-4-1 and heavily developing three defenders and three midfielders at a time. I've been getting excellent returns on DV, but I've found the side currently yo-yo between the two divisions - the mentors are good enough to haul the team to the top flight, where they get thrashed. I've also only been able to train six players at a time in five slots.

I've since had a bit of an epiphany, thanks in no small part to one of my other sides - Steel City Starlets. Now, the Xpert Ladies is an odd league in that youths cost a small fortune in the closed season and the YA is a worthy investment. I'd got the defenders and midfielders I needed to take the team forwards and was using my strikers to generate revenue. However, my YA had been falling short on quality strikers to train during the season, so the ones I was promoting I was actually leaving out. Instead, my two youngest mids are all-rounders and I'm rotating them up front, thus allowing me to play my strongest midfield. That got me thinking, why not just scrap forwards altogether?

I have a dim view of forwards right now, both in terms of their utility and their profitability, but I figure I could use the forward slot as a means of training up my very weakest youths if they are all-rounders. The plan would be to use a permanent 4-5-1, with my mentors as a GK, two DF and three MF. That leaves me two defensive slots, two midfield slots and a forward slot for youths. I could rotate three youths in defence, three in midfield and then have an all-round defender and all-round midfielder rotate in the space up front. They'd earn 85% of the usual ME, which multiplied by the 63% earned for half a match means that, if they rotate at half time, the ME gained is still like playing one whole game out of two up front. With all-rounders being handy in a small squad anyway, it seems like a no brainer, especially with me developing two extra youths at a time.

I'm hoping to adapt my Orange Mooses side to use all-rounders in this closed season, then will shift to my other teams in due course. I'll let you know how it goes.

Compatibility and teamwork

In this post (and I know it's been a while), I'd like to talk about compatibility, its effect on teamwork values and how that can impact the performance of individual players and the team as a whole. I'd also like to talk about how you can use knowledge of your players' compatibility values to your advantage, in terms of getting the best from your players and also helping them improve their teamwork values.

I'd like to refer people to Widzy's guide (which is, in turn, hosted on Terjekv's site), which is essential reading if you're not very familiar with compatibility.

Compatbility can be a little misleading in that the value you see on the player's page relates to how well they get on with the team, but the teamwork values (and the most direct effects on performance) are based on how well the player gets on with players in the same part of the team. What happens during a game is like this:

• The average teamwork value for the team parts are worked out
• All the players in each team part have performance adjusted based on how close their value is to the average
• The whole team's teamwork value is calculated by combining the three team parts
• The whole team has a performance adjustment based on the overall team value

The mechanism here means that one individual that gets on badly with the team will suffer the most directly, will have a slight effect on the rest of their team part, but the effect on the whole team should be a bit smaller. Unusual things can happen with lone strikers - the teamwork for the attack with a 5-4-1 or 4-5-1 is always 20, so the striker will never suffer directly, but they may have an effect on the whole team's value.

Another piece of information on the player page is the "works best / worst with" information. The thing to remember here is that "works worst with" does not mean "works badly with". The information is handy in that you can use the link to move from one player to the other to see just how close their values are.

Teamwork values are updated after each game and should generally converge over time (although divas will do what they want). The players adjust to the rest of their team part first (and this is the largest part of the adjustment), then the overall team value. Over time it is not uncommon for two team parts to move to slightly different values e.g. defenders may be all slightly left of centre while midfielders are all slightly right of centre. This can depend on the players that are used together and the signings that you make. The teamwork adjustments can be exploited by deliberately selecting players that may "drag" other players' teamwork values one way or another. Friendlies are also useful in the sense that they give a full teamwork adjustment, even though they give minimal match experience.

When buying players, the important thing to remember is that your older players - the ones that you need the performances out of straight away - are the ones that need to have the best teamwork. They should be all "good" at least, but keep an eye on the actual meter. If you're looking at two defenders with "good" compatibility, one left and one right of centre, then you may wish to check your defenders' values to see if they tend to converge slightly left or right of centre, as one of the two prospective signings might be a better fit. Younger players are less important as they will get many games to improve their compatibility before they become first team regulars, but try to sign players that are at least fair and be wary of signing too many players that may drag team parts in different directions.

Starting a team from scratch

While most managers will get their enjoyment from winning trophies (and don't get me wrong, that is pretty sweet), part of my enjoyment comes from taking a hopeless team and building them up from nothing to being competitive. I managed it with Huge Pythons in the Master League and I'm hoping to do the same in the Xpert Ladies. Most of my teams are usually in a stage of development as opposed to competing directly for silverware.

My latest project, in the League of D, had enough about them to get promoted to the top division, but the sheer lack of assets means that we're in for a drubbing. I've got five youths training up this season, but I've come up with my approach for the next two or three seasons.

The key to this project will be profitability, although I will be aiming to actually win some games in the lower tier while I'm at it. I'm starting to move away from forwards as a source of income since:

• more and more people are realising how useless they are; and
• those people are now training up young forwards themselves, driving down profit margins.

The plan will be to make as much money as possible from young defenders and midfielders, using rotation of formations and decent mentors. I'm aiming to have a veteran GK, 2 defenders, 2 midfielders and a striker. That doesn't necessarily leave many spaces in the line-up for giving young'uns game time, but the approach will be to use two subs at 45 minutes each game, and rotating between 4-5-1 at home and 5-4-1 away. The section with 5 in can give two players a full game and two a half game, which should be enough to get all the prospects to a point where DV > AF, so I only need to worry about training the life out of them. Eight training sessions should be just about covered by the team's weekly income, so as long as I've enough cash to bring in my building blocks, I should be laughing.

As it stands, there are three weeks left in the current season, so I'm looking to build up as much cash between now and the start of next season (hopefully doubling a couple of the youths I currently have) and we'll see how it goes.

Selling players as underevaluations

In the past, the most common way people have raised cash has been to bring in youths, get them to double jump (e.g. a 17/4 to an 18/6) and then sell them on. However, something that is becoming increasingly common is the deliberate sale of players that will increase skill on transfer. I've seen more adverts in the forums of late for players that are being listed as underevaluations, and it makes sense to sell players in this way as you can get the skill increase without an increase in age.

My first thoughts are this approach would work better in the official leagues - you can sell players quite late into a long season (thus maximising the skill increase a player will get), you can pick a target league to sell to and it's easier for managers to verify the players you are selling. However, I will be trying this approach in a private league, with the aim of training a player and then selling them as a double underevaluation.

My Red Army side has two young strikers that are both very high in their skill band - Makalov is on 6.4 skill and Anosov is on 5.4. Obtaining a double at the end of the season for both is a viable target, although I believe I can maximise their selling potential due to the nature of the league. The division has nine teams with one match a week, so it's 16 games over 18 weeks. There are also two cups so there's plenty of room to garner extra match experience, especially as I made the final of one and am confident that I can progress quite far in the other, two-legged affair. If I keep the two players' forms up, I believe I can get the players to their target DVs - Makalov would need to be on about 18 DV if I sell at the very last moment to gain 1.1 skill, while Anosov will need a high 18 / low 19 by my reckoning, as he needs the extra 0.1 skill due to even rounding.

It will be the first time I've purposely sold underevaluations and I think it will be useful to gain some experience of listing and attempting to advertise deliberate underevals as well as providing me data for the mini-CR.

Collated CR data

For some time, I've been collating data from my change reports in order to work out estimated skill increases for DV values. I believe I've got enough data now that it's worth publishing (with credit to Gildar and Michelep, who have helped me fill a lot of gaps in my own data with their own values). Click on an image to enlarge it.

16-20 year olds

21-22 year olds

23-25 year olds

26-28 year olds

29-31 year olds

32-35 year olds

36-37 year olds

The full spreadsheet (retrofitted to Excel 97-2003 format) is available here.

Training results, and why less can be more

I've been a bit lax putting new posts up recently, but I'd much prefer to find topics that are worth talking about than posting for the sake of it. Anyhow, in this post I'd like to discuss training, and why form gains are not the be all and end all.

I remember of something a friend of mine told me:

Swiss cheese has holes.
The more holes you have, the less cheese you have.
The more cheese you have, the more holes you have.
Therefore, the more cheese you have, the less cheese you have.

In a similar sense, a big form increase from training after a severe drop in form is not necessarily the result you want, and you'd actually prefer to receive a smaller form increase. The rules state that "...if the effect (of form training on form) is small it is likely the player had a negative hidden form tendency which became positive by the form training." Correcting a hidden form tendency with a smaller form boost will have a much better effect on a player's form than just a large form boost that can be cancelled out at the next match.

From my own personal experience, I'm often sceptical when a player gains more than 10% form gain (that is, 10% of 20-form, as that is how training results are calculated), which will be reflected as an upwards and not diagonal green arrow. That would mean a player gaining more than a whole bar on 10 form, or more than 0.5 bars at 15 form for example, may have a negative hidden FT still and may need to go straight back into training immediately.

The science of underevals

"Underevals", or players that gain skill bar on transfer, are starting to become a more popular method of farming players, particularly with the new threads in the forums created for the purpose of advertising players. In a previous post, I discussed what happens when a transfer takes place, but I'll build on that by discussing how you can use that to your advantage when selling players.

The basic premise

Players gain or lose skill on transfer, based on their average form, match experience and the amount the season has progressed. The way the skill increase / decrease is calculated is very similar to the way that it is at the change report, although there is one difference; at the change report, players get a random amount of between 0 and 0.2 as an additional gain (or loss) at the CR, but this is not applied on transfers.

Setting players up to become underevals

Building players up in order to sell them as underevals is a similar approach to training players normally - maintain form and ensure you give enough game time. The higher the form and the greater the match experience, the bigger the skill increase. Selling later in the season will also increase the skill gain a player makes. It's worth noting, however, that you don't necessarily need to get a huge skill increase - just enough so that the player gains a skill bar. You may find that, if you have a player that is high in their skill band, it's easier to try and sell them as an undereval than trying to attain a double jump with them, especially if you have lots of other players that need match experience.

When exactly to sell

There are a couple of things to consider when trying to sell underevals - whether you've earned enough of a skill increase for a visible jump on transfer, and whether there are teams actively looking for players. While selling four days before the deadline will give the maximum increase, you won't want to sell then if there aren't many leagues in silly season (which you can spot in the official leagues, but is mainly down to luck in private ones), and there's not much point keeping a player for extra weeks if you've already done enough for them to gain skill.

Calculating the DV a player needs to be an undereval

This calculator should help you work out what DV you will need to make a player an undereval given a point in the season. Note that I have written the calculator to be slightly pessimistic, in that they should return a DV that will guarantee an undereval, but you use it at your own risk.

Age:	16-20 21-22 23-25 26-28 29-31 32-35
Skill:
Average Form:
Amount of season that has passed (on day of listing):	of days / games

Growing your own vs. using the market

I'm a fan of the "conveyor" style of team building, i.e. having players spread over a range of ages, with younger players developing to replace older ones when they retire. Part of the process of the conveyor is bringing in younger players to train up, but there are times when it may be more beneficial to just skip the process and just buy a ready made player that meets your requirements.

Goalkeepers and free kick takers

These two players are often touted as the most important in any side - they are the players that can win you matches on their own. While you can develop these players by yourself, there is definitely an incentive to buy them from the off, notably with 'keepers. A young goalie can cost you results while they develop so you could skip that step and buy an older, better keeper one straight away, while you can have a young FK specialist training up, you'll want a decent one taking free kicks in the meantime. If you're looking to maintain a side at the very top (as the likes of Imperium Sine Fine have done remarkably well) then you may find that just buying goalkeepers at their peak will be the way forward.

Starting out

I tend to start new teams (although I effectively overhauled FC Ballbreakers) and, while I'm developing a smaller number of youngsters in the opening seasons, I will bring in older mentors to assist their development (and make sure I don't get drubbed too badly each week). It's unlikely with most new teams that the older players will be of the quality you require to maximise experience for the youths, so picking up a couple of cheap veterans will often be helpful.

Strengthening the first XI

Another time I'd look at buying in a player is if I was looking to bolster the starting lineup, primarily for a promotion / title push. One downside to the conveyor is that, while a selection of the players will be fully developed, some will not yet be at their peak, and having to field these will weaken your side. Bringing in quality players could be needed to really compete in the higher divisions.

Pros and cons

• If you're training your players from scratch, you're in control of their development and compatibility should be excellent by the time the player reaches their peak, but it will take time (especially in longer leagues), and there's a risk that one or two bad seasons development may scupper your plans.
• If you're buying players from the market, you don't have to worry about those seasons of developing a player where they're not much use to you, but you're at the mercy of the market. This means you can't guarantee a ready supply when you need it, or you might not find a good level of compatibility, or you may have to pay a premium for a player.

You may find that in leagues with long seasons, you're best using your younger players to generate cash and buying most of the players you want to compete on the market. In leagues with short seasons, you may find that developing players quickly can be the more cost effective approach.

Analysing your own (and others') results and improving your tactics

As somebody who spends a lot of time trawling (and not trolling) the Xpert forum, I've seen more than my fair share of tactical discussion over the eight years or so I've played the game to date. The thing with a lot of the debate that happens with tactics (as often seen on various "why did I lose?" threads from days gone by, where the OP is usually told they are unlucky, or have their tactics ripped to bits) is that a small amount of information comes from fact e.g. the rules, quotes from Iwe or the crew etc., while a larger amount comes from speculation (often comparing the game to real life) or anecdotal experience (based on a manager's own results, and not necessarily over the longer term). As I've come to that view, I've started commenting less directly on tactics as I prefer to advise people based on the facts, rather than a potentially distorted view from my own experience.

One downside to tactical discussion in the general forums (as opposed to select private leagues) is that the managers that know the best answers are likely to not post their comments - after all, why should they give away their tactical advantage to all and sundry? It does mean that a lot of what you read regarding tactics can be contradictory, out of date or just plain wrong.

So, if the forums aren't reliable, then the best way to learn is to look at results. Here, I'd like to talk about a few things to consider if you wish to analyse your matches (or indeed, the matches of other managers that you may respect or consider to have real tactical nous) in order to learn the most from them and maybe pick up one or two novel ideas.

One swallow does not a summer make

I've often seen managers cite a single match to 'prove' a theory they may have e.g. they will pick one match they have played recently using 4-2-4 to demonstrate that it is a solid formation. The outcome of a single match is not enough evidence to prove anything - you could look at a dozen more matches with the same formation / playing style etc. that you are looking at and they could all go the opposite way entirely. The more data you have at your disposal, the better your analysis will be.

Pick and choose your matches

Some matches will teach you a lot more than others, for a number of reasons. Since tactics reports cost 35k a pop, it makes sense to be a little reasoned with your approach. Here are my tips for picking and choosing matches to study:

• Pick big games. These could be because of the strength of the teams involved, or the quality of the coaches. XCL games (particularly in the knockouts) are often worth a look.
• Look for upsets. These could be games where a weaker side has overcome a much stronger opponent, or an away side has absolutely dominated against a similarly matched home team. Matches where a stronger side thrashes a weaker side are probably of little use.
• Check the match report first. There could be factors involved that you want to discount straight away e.g. an early red card, or one side forgetting to set a line-up (indicated by no subs) or some really poor tactics (usually less than three stars).

Consider all the evidence

A result may not be down to just one single factor - there may be some parts of the tactics that come into play that you might not normally consider. Formation and playing style in combination I consider to be the two most important, but you should try to inspect the line-ups as well to make sure there are no obvious weaknesses. After that, I would say that the playmaker is the next important factor, then the ref-based decisions (cheat / offsides / aggression). It may be worth watching The Game if you can, to see how a game pans out - the overall stats may tell one story, but watching the game you could notice an influential event in the game e.g. a substitution at a particular time that can have a large bearing.

This is probably going to be my last post for at least two weeks (but probably up to a month) as I'm heading to Brazil on Saturday for a fortnight to soak up some WC atmosphere, then I'm off to Spain after that.

Finding a player's target DV

Following on from the creation of my skill calculator, one logical step would be to try and find out what a player's DV needs to be at the next CR in order to secure a gain of one (or possibly two) skill bars. I have been collecting data on skill gains from change reports for some time (as well as using data supplied by gildar), and have put together this crude calculator that can help you work out what DV you should be aiming for for your players.

Note: I've supplied a minimum DV required (i.e. a value at which all the players observed with that DV have gained the needed skill) and an average DV value (where on average, the player has gained enough skill). You should definitely aim for the higher of the two DV values where possible. These values are based on actual change reports, but you still use the figures at your own risk.

Age:	16-20 21-22 23-25 26-28 29-31
Skill:
Calculate DV needed for:	single jump double jump

The relationship between ME, AF and DV

I posted here about the relationship between ME, AF and DV, but now I've turned that info into two calculators that will allow you to approximate a player's current ME if you know their DV and AF, but also allow you to estimate a player's potential DV based on a value for average form and an amount of match experience. Note that the DV calculator will probably become inaccurate for ME values > 500 (or where a player has more than five times the ME required for DV to equal AF, which is impossible in most leagues), and that these calculators won't be accurate for players aged 33 or over.

Note that the calculators will take a decimal value for average form, so if you are VIP you may be able to get a more accurate figure from the form graph to use.

Match experience calculator

Average Form:
DV type	Old (0 to 20)	New (-10 to +10)
Development Value:

Development value calculator

Average Form:
Match Experience:

When to invest in the youth academy?

The youth academy has proven to be very controversial since its introduction in July '11, with many users unhappy with it in its current format; in general the main complaints are the remarkably poor youths that you receive with no investment, or inconsistent results with maximum investment. I've generally been happy with the results I've had out of the YA, although I've taken a very varied approach across all my teams and feel there are a number of things to consider. Essentially, the league format, market forces and the current state of your team financially can all influence your decision to invest, but the effects are completely different between official leagues, private leagues and the Xpert Ladies.

Official leagues

In the official leagues, the main influences on your decision to invest will probably be your requirement for younger players and your cash flow. It would appear that a number of teams invest in the YA already in the Xpert leagues, based on the low cost of youths such as players that are a 17/4 or equivalent. If you don't have a lot of spare cash (such as if you have a relatively new team) then you would probably be better to invest a smaller amount in the YA, keeping some cash back for training and purchasing youths on the market. If you have plenty in the bank, are more interested in SQs or are just feeling lucky, then you may wish to invest more - special qualities are definitely at a premium and, because they are randomly generated on youths, you may end up receiving a player that is of much greater value than most others of the same age and skill. Bear in mind that you are at the mercy of probability though, so don't bank on the YA being immediately profitable - it may take money to make money.

The Xpert Ladies

The Xpert Ladies offers one of the most unusual experiences of any league in the game, and this is all down to its unique transfer market. Since the Ladies has its own market, the supply and demand for players (and their subsequent value) fluctuate wildly throughout the season. During the closed season and the first couple of weeks, prices (particularly for young players) are incredibly high due to limited supply and large demand. However, as the season progresses, demand for young players drops very quickly (due to many managers being aware of the downsides of cashing out on transfer), so prices drop to record lows.

Investing a significant amount in the YA can prove beneficial here, but only if you're going to sell youths during the closed season when prices are high. If you receive youths later in the season, you may find that you'll have to give them games to boost their DV, or that potentially lucrative 16/4 may not sell and you'll find yourself with a much less valuable 17/4 on your hands by the time you can find a buyer. If you're investing heavily, it's definitely worth leaving a gap in your team for a potential youth and having a backup plan to train / play one heavily if you receive one at an inopportune moment. The unpredictability of the youth system does mean that you wouldn't normally want to rely on talents alone to build a team, but the Ladies is the one league where it's most likely to reap rewards.

Private leagues

The format of the league is one of the most significant things to consider when working out whether to invest or not in the youth academy in private leagues, although I'm not sure it's by design. Because teams can't receive youth players in the final 18 days of the season, leagues with short seasons will spend a larger proportion of time unable to bring in youths and thus lose some value on investment. The irony is that leagues with short seasons will be the ones that actual develop these players and bring them to maturity - in longer leagues it's definitely more productive in the short term to bring in established players to improve a squad and sell youths on.

In essence, you'll probably want to invest a larger amount in longer private leagues and a smaller amount (if any at all) in the shorter ones.

Other things to bear in mind

There are a couple of other points I'd like to mention here to try and cover everything. The first is that, while investing in the YA increases the probability of getting good youths (and, in the long run, you will receive better youths), you may still receive substandard ones. If you decide to invest in the YA, you will have to be prepared for the investment to not pay off straight away. Persist and you should see results over the longer term.

I've also mentioned in previous posts about the mechanism by which players can gain or lose skill when they transfer between clubs. If you're looking to sell a youth, then if they don't have any game time and you're a significant way through the season, then the player will lose some amount of skill. If you're close to the transfer deadline and it's a fairly long season (such as the 14 week official leagues), then that can equate to 0.3 or 0.4 of a skill bar. It's something that buyers can look out for in the official leagues, since it's possible to look at the player and team, but is not possible in private leagues.

Finally, your academy has to build up stars until it reaches your level of investment. It might not be the most economical way to take a 0-econ academy and invest 300k straight away, as it will be several weeks until your academy reaches 5 stars. I tend to build up the investment as the number of stars increase (i.e. invest 50k to 2 stars, then 100k to 3 and so on). It will take a little longer to reach the level you need but could save you some cash. Likewise, there may be the odd week where you can reduce investment slightly and save a little econ - you can maintain a 5-star academy by investing 300k for two weeks, then 250k every third week.

Finally, here are the levels of investment, with some details of how long it takes to get from one level to another based on my own investment data:
0 econ = ½ star
50 000 econ = 2 stars (3 weeks from 0)
100 000 econ = 3 stars (5 weeks from 0)
150 000 econ = 3½ stars
200 000 econ = 4 stars (7 weeks from 0)
250 000 econ = 4½ stars
300 000 econ = 5 stars (10 weeks from 0)

100k
2 star >> 3 star in 3 weeks

200k
2 star >> 3 star in 2 weeks
2 star >> 3.5 star in 3 weeks
2 star >> 4 star in 5 weeks

300k
2 star >> 3 star in 2 weeks
2 star >> 3.5 star in 3 weeks
2 star >> 4 star in 4 weeks
2 star >> 4.5 star in 5 weeks

Gleaning information from the VIP form graph

In a previous post I mentioned the hidden form tendency and some of the ways it can be affected. Here, I'll be looking to build on that information to show you how the form graph - something I've touted for a long time as one of the biggest perks of being VIP - can be used to help figure out a player's hidden FT. The reason for this being better than just checking arrows is that arrows on their own don't tell the whole story; increases or decreases in form of less than 5% will show as a black arrow but may be visible on the form graph.

Spotting a positive hidden tendency after training

A lot of people will tell you that the dreaded overtraining has been removed; this is only partially correct. Players can still overtrain but, instead of receiving a form drop, they just gain no form at all. The training report will show this as a "minimal effect" - something that happens quite a lot for players on high form (as the actual form gains can be quite small) - but the form graph will tell you who has this as a result of overtraining, which can only happen if the hidden form tendency is positive. Note that players will get a similar outcome if they are injured (or slightly injured) and their form is above 10 when training finishes.

Spotting players that lost form after a game

Players that get a black arrow after a match may have gained or lost a small amount of form. The only way to determine exactly what happened is to check the form graph. If a player lost a slight amount of form after a game, it could be an indicator of a negative hidden form tendency, particularly if the player / team had a good game (as that would normally yield a form increase).

Note that there are a number of factors that can affect a player's form after a game - the individual performance (including events like chances), the team part performance and the result can all have a bearing.

Using the Xpert Ladies to get a (nearly) free extra team

The Xpert Ladies is an unusual league; it's not really an official league, but it's not really a private league either. There is one thing that is quite handy about it though - even though it counts against quota for you to join a league, it doesn't count against quota once you're in. I actually asked the crew about this and they say it's fine.

This means that, as long as you don't have a tendency to hop private leagues on a regular basis, you can actually run three normal private leagues and a Ladies team for the cost of a one-off extra team payment to join the Ladies. There is one caveat, though - if you wish to leave a team, you'll need an extra team again in order to join another league.

I believe the quota count extends as well, so (assuming you have full quota, either via Xpert rating or VIP) you should be able to have five private teams (including the Ladies) by paying for just one extra, and six private teams (including the Ladies) by paying for just two extra.

The mechanics of form

This post is going to be a bit of a precursor to a guide I'd like to put together on training (although there are quite a few around already), because I think knowing how form works is a big step in being able to maximise form for your players.

When form updates happen

Form updates happen at the following times:

• At the change report, with a normal form update and an update based on skill increase / decrease;
• At match times, with a normal form update immediately before the match, in-game form updates and result-based form updates;
• After training takes place; and
• After "everyday events" appear in the mailbox.

Form notations and average form

Form notations are points where the form is recorded to calculate their average. Notations are taken after the change report (or when a player joins a club), and after each competitive game, whether the player is involved or not. At the start of the season, when a player has very few notations, average form can fluctuate wildly. However, as the season elapses and a player picks up more notations, average form will stabilise.

Normal form updates

A normal form update is a change in form that is influenced by the player's hidden form tendency, a value which is either positive or negative, indicating whether the player's form is on the rise or whether it is dipping. The size of a normal form update is influenced by the form a player has - form increases will be larger and decreases smaller when a player is on low form, and vice versa when a player is on high form. Because the aim is to maintain form at as high a level as possible, the drops in form can often seem disproportionately large compared to form gains.

Once the form has been updated, the player's hidden form tendency is then updated, based on the player's form. It can change (either from positive to negative or the other way around) or stay the same.

Hidden form tendency and rubberbanding

The hidden form tendency is the primary factor that makes maintaining form difficult. It is not to be confused with form trend, which is an indicator of a player's past form change (as shown by the red / black / green arrows on the squad page).

As Iwe puts it:

"The hidden form tendency can change at every normal form update but it always more likely to remain in the same direction. A hidden form tendency can also be changed due to some extraordinary situation in a match for example a great individual performance or a really lousy indivdual mistake."

The hidden form tendency is more likely to become (or stay) positive on lower form, and is more likely to become or stay negative on higher form. This effect is dubbed "rubberbanding" because a player's form will generally fluctuate around a middle value (usually around 10, but slightly higher for younger players, and slightly lower for older ones), and the further away the player's form gets (like stretching a rubber band), the more the system will try to "pull" form back towards that value.

The only direct influence a manager can have on a negative hidden form tendency is form training. There are ways to help determine whether a player's hidden form tendency is more likely to be positive or negative, and I intend to detail those in another post.

Match-related form updates

There are a number of ways in which a match can affect a player's form or form tendency, depending on what happens during the match and the overall outcome.

First of all, any player not involved in the match will lose a small amount of form. This is usually less than a bar, but it is a noticeable decrease on players that have high from.

For players that do play, the most common in-game events that affect form are chances, and so these events tend to affect individuals. Every miss affects a striker's form, for example, and some misses can be so bad that they can turn a player's hidden form tendency to negative. Conversely, goals improve form, while saving / not saving shots has an effect on 'keepers. Injuries also have a signficant effect on form (and, from my experience, hidden form tendency as well) although this has been scaled back fairly recently.

At the end of the match, players' individual performances can affect form, but sections of a team are evaluated as well. Each team part has a specific task - defenders prevent chances, midfielders create chances and strikers convert them. If these tasks are completed, then they will be rated well and this can reflect on form. Likewise, the actual result itself has a bearing on the team's form. Defeats reduce form (particularly if they are against weaker teams) and victories increase form (moreso against stronger teams).

Training and its effects

Contrary to what some believe, the main benefit of training is not necessarily the direct effect on a player's form, but the effect on their hidden form tendency. Correcting a negative hidden form tendency will cause the player's form to rise at the player's next match. Indeed, because the increase in form is based on form that the player "doesn't have" (i.e. a percentage of 20 - form), form increases are generally no more than one or two bars most of the time, with the bigger increases happening for players on low form (for example, following a change report).

The likelihood of training correcting a hidden form tendency improves the lower the player's form. This quote from Iwe details more:

"I might add that the chance of the player having a positive hidden form tendency is never lower than 65%. And for a player with no form it is a guarantee that the player will have a positive hidden form tendency after a form training."

Transfers, skill updates and the "mini-CR"

One of the features of Xpert Eleven that I don't think is described in enough detail is the transfer market and how it works. There's a lot goes on when you sell a player (and when you buy a player as well) which isn't explained much anywhere, but it's very important when deciding when to buy, when to sell and what to look for in a player, particularly in the official leagues. I'm hoping that I can shed some light on transfers and what is commonly referred to as the "mini-CR".

What happens when a player is sold

When a player is put on the transfer market, the system does some behind the scenes processing to update the player's skill when they switch clubs. This update is what causes players to have different skill when they are evaluated. Note that the skill shown before evaluating is the player's skill at the selling team, and the evaluated skill is that after the update.

To calculate the skill update, the system estimates what the player's development value would be at the end of the season if average form stayed the same, and the player continued to get the same amount of game time as they do now. This development value is then converted into a skill increase / decrease (as you would get at the end of the season), but is then scaled down to the percentage of the season that has elapsed while the player has been at the club i.e. if 30% of the season has elapsed for a player that was with the team form the beginning of the season, the skill change will be 30% of what it would be come season's end. This is why the skill change is referred to as a "mini-CR", since it's governed by the same rules as the change report, but is always a smaller update.

What happens when you sign a player

When you sign a player (from the transfer market), they undergo a process called "cashing out". Depending on how far you are through the season, the player will have their skill change at the end of the season capped. If you are 40% of the way through your season, then 40% of the player's skill update will be "cashed out" and your player will only be eligible for 60% of a full skill update at the end of the season. This is immediately reflected in the player's Development Value - it will start on a higher value than usual (because players would lose less skill at the end of the season), but it will increase more slowly. You may also find that, if you sign a player particularly late in the season and their AF is high, you may never get DV as high as average form, no matter how many games the player gets.

What this means for buying players

There are a few things that you should remember when buying players (particularly in the official leagues, where you can view most players at their current club by clicking on their name):

• You should buy young players for developing as early in the season (ideally before the league kicks off) as possible to reduce cashing out;
• Players are more likely to have skill increases if they have had plenty of game time, and will almost certainly lose some skill (even if not visibly) if they have no game time. Don't just check the number of games played, look to see how many minutes they've played;
• It's worth checking that a manager looks like they maintain the form of the players they are selling;
• Players are more likely to have bigger skill increases (or decreases if they have no game time) if their league is further through their season.
• It may be worth checking the player's history, such as their skill and age when they joined the team. If a young player looks like they've had a change report and not gained a visible bar, it could be that they are high in their skill band i.e. they gained some skill over the CR, but not enough to show up. Likewise, if they have had a CR and gained two bars, then they are likely to be low in their skill band and probably not worth the investment.

Making the most of your bids

X11's transfer market is slightly odd, in that that the person that offers the highest bid limit isn't always the winner. This is because the way bids are calculated is through bid steps, where two competing bids take turns to "step" up the current offer until one of the bid limits is reached.

The unusual result of this process is that, when you place a bid, there are actually ranges of values that are equivalent. For example, when you place an offer, if a current bidder has a limit of [asking price + 1 step], you will lose if you haven't offered at least [asking price + 2 steps]. If you offer [asking price + 2 steps - 1 econ], that offer is as much use as offering the asking price alone. This means that you can actually optimise your offer based on what you're prepared to pay, and also know what you would need to pay to fend off bids of a certain limit. The following calculator is rather crude, but will give you the lowest amount equivalent to your suggested bid limit, as well as the next offer up.

Bid optimiser

What is the player's current asking price?

What is your approximate bid limit?

Development Value, Match Experience and Average Form

Knowing about how the Development Value (or DV) works is an important part of the game, as being able to successfully train up your players allows you to improve the skill of your players and increase the value of your squad.

There are two factors that contribute to a player's DV (and ultimately, how they will progress at the end of the season) - match experience (ME) and average form (AF). Knowing a little bit about how these two factors combine to produce the final DV value will help when it comes to maximising your team's development.

Players gain experience for each minute that they play. Younger, lower skilled players learn more from older, better players, both on their own team and on the opposing side. That experience is converted into a percentage value, such that DV is then a percentage of AF. The more experience a player gains, the higher that percentage value. However, something unusual happens when a player reaches "100%" i.e. when DV is the same as AF. Further experience still contributes to a player's DV, but instead of being a percentage of their average form, it's a percentage of 20 (the maximum value for average form) - AF. This means that players on lower average form actually gain more than players on higher average form for extra time played.

It's worth noting that, the greater match experience a player has, the smaller the effect any additional experience will have - don't be surprise if DV rises quickly to start with but slows down as the season progresses. I got hold of some figures regarding match experience and its effect on DV and have managed to put them into a graph which should help illustrate how match experience and average form combine to produce the overall development value, and the effects of giving players more than "100%" match experience i.e. what happens when you start pushing DV above the average form. The term "standardised match experience" just means I've adjusted the figures so that 100 is the experience needed to get DV = AF (players getting the maximum experience out of a game need about 4/14 games to get "100%" usually), 200 is double that amount of experience and so on. Realistically, you'll not be able to get past around 300 without having a cup, as cup games provide bonus experience.

One thing to note is that average form is incredibly significant for players with lower amounts of match experience. It's why it's not always a concern if players appear to gain DV slowly at the start of a season (when you may be trying to build form up after a change report). It also shows that you can't rely solely on match experience for DV, you have to maintain form as well.